A study on the role of synoptic and semi-permanent features of Indian summer monsoon on it’s rainfall variations during different phases of El-Nino

Abstract

Characteristics of different synoptic and semi-permanent features of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR), such as monsoon disturbances (lows and depressions), monsoon trough and Tibetan anticyclone and duration of monsoon,  are studied individually for different phases of El-Nino during the period 1960-98 to understand why during some El-Nino single events, ISMR was deficient while during other years, ISMR was on the positive side of normal or normal. This study examines cases of El-Nino double events with deficient and near deficient ISMR in one of the two years and in both the years respectively. The cases of deficient ISMR without any El-Nino are also discussed. Emphasis has been given on the effects of the synoptic and semi-permanent features on spatial variations of ISMR.

Results show that characteristics of synoptic and semi-permanent features were important for ISMR and these were responsible for producing normal or above normal ISMR during some years in spite of El-Nino such as 1997. Also in the absence of El-Nino, ISMR was deficient because of less number of days of monsoon trough, lows and depressions, and weak Tibetan anticyclone. The reverse happened during flood years when there was no La-Nina. Statistical analysis indicates very high correlation coefficients (CCs) of these synoptic and semi-permanent features with ISMR than those of SST of Nino-3 region. India received highest monsoon rainfall during 1961 because total number of days of intense monsoon disturbances and monsoon trough and the total duration of monsoon over India during the year was the highest. This study shows that monsoon disturbances and monsoon trough are the most important components of synoptic and semi-permanent features, which affected spatial variation of ISMR in 1965 and 1966 with deficient rainfall and in 1961 and 1994 with excess rainfall over a large part of India.