Epidemiology and forecasting of insect-pests and diseases for value-added agro-advisory

Abstract

Models are means to capture, condense and organize knowledge. These are expressions, which represent relationship between various components of a system. A well-tested weather-based model can be an effective scientific tool for forewarning insect-pests and diseases in advance so that timely plant protection measures could be taken up. Various types of techniques have been developed for the purpose. The simplest technique forms the class of thumb rules, which are based on experience. Though these do not have much scientific background but are extensively used to provide quick forewarning of the menace. Another tool in practice is regression model that represents relationship between two or more variables so that one variable can be predicted from the other (s). Linear and non-linear regression models have been widely used in studying relationship of insect-pests and diseases with time and weather variables (as such or in some transformed forms). With the advent of computers more sophisticated techniques such as simulation modelling and machine learning approach such as decision tree induction algorithms, genetic algorithms, neural networks, rough sets, etc. have been explored. A number of simulation models have been developed all over the world for quantifying effects of various factors including weather on agriculture.  These may provide a good forecast but require detailed data base, which may not be available. Machine learning approach has recently received some attention. As opposed to traditional model-based methods, machine learning approach is self adaptive methods in that there are a few a priori assumptions about the models for problem(s) under study. This technique learns more from examples and captures subtle functional relationships among the data even if the underlying relationships are unknown or hard to describe.  This modelling approach with ability to learn from experience is very useful for many practical problems provided enough data are available. Remotely sensed data can provide useful information relating to area under the crop and also the condition thereof. It has certain advantages over land use statistics due to multi-spectral, synoptic and repetitive coverage. An attempt has been made for accurate estimation of area affected by insect-pests and diseases in crops along with accurate assessment of damage due to the same are possible for providing compensation to farmers. In this study, an Integrated Decision Support System (IDSS) for Crop Protection Services is also discussed.