Intensification and movement of cyclonic storm in the Bay of Bengal during post monsoon season

Abstract

Using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and from the available data on tracks of the storms from India Meteorological Department for the period 1981-2005 an attempt is made to understand the intensification of storms and their movements in the Bay of Bengal during post-monsoon season. It is noticed that in the month of October only 12 % of the cyclonic storms weakened whereas in November and December it is 28 % and 41 % respectively. Cyclonic storms moving in a northeast direction weaken in all the months of post-monsoon season. Most of the westward moving storms do not undergo weakening. In the Bay of Bengal, SST and relative humidity are not responsible for weakening of the storms except in December but wind shear is responsible for weakening. The orientation of isotherms of SST of Bay of Bengal influences the direction of motion.  During the years when the storms are predominantly moving west/northwest the SST over the Bay of Bengal is about 1.0° C warmer than the years when the storms are predominantly moving in north/northeastward. If the isotherms of SST are oriented southwest-northeast with higher value in the east then system may move in north or northeastward and on such occasions east Bay of Bengal is warmer than west Bay of Bengal.