Spatio-temporal modeling of surface runoff in ungauged sub-catchments of Subarnarekha river basin using SWAT

Abstract

In this present study, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) embedded with ArcGIS interface has been used to simulate the surface runoff from the un-gauged sub-catchments in the upper catchment of Subarnarekha basin. Model calibration and validation were performed with the help of Sequential Uncertainty Fitting (SUFI-2) in-built in the SWAT-CUP package (SWAT Calibration Uncertainty Programs). The model was calibrated for a period from 1996 to 2008 with 3 years warm up period (1996-1998) and validated for a period of 5 years from 2009 to 2013. The model evaluation was performed by Nash - Sutcliffe coefficient (NSE), Coefficient of determination (R²) and Percentage Bias (PBIAS). The degree of uncertainty was evaluated by P and R factors. Basing upon the R², NSE and PBIAS values respectively, of the order of 0.90, 0.90 and -12%, during calibration and 0.85, 0.83 and -15% during validation, substantiate performance of the model. All uncertainties of model parameters have been well taken by the P and R factors respectively, of the order of 0.95 and 0.77 during calibration and 0.82 and 0.87 during validation. The runoff generation from 19 sub-catchments of Adityapur catchment varies from 29.2-44.1% of the annual rainfall and average surface runoff simulated for the entire catchment is 545 mm. As the surface runoff generated in most of the sub-catchments amounts to above 30% of rainfall, it is recommended for adequate number of structural interventions at appropriate locations in the catchment to store the rainfall excess for providing irrigation, recharging groundwater and restricting the sediment and nutrient loss.