Prediction of potential and attainable yield of wheat : A case study on yield gap

Abstract

This study reports the role of field experimentation and system simulation in better quantifying the productivity of wheat crop, and examine how knowledge on potential productivity can improve the efficiency of the production system. When knowledge from field experimentation is utilised into crop weather simulation models, gap between actual, attainable and potential yield for a given environment can be determined and opportunities for yield improvement can be assessed. Results show that while actual district average yields show increasing trend, decreasing trend is noticed in potential and attainable yield. While the total and management yield gap is decreasing over time, research yield gap does not show any trend, it is nearly stagnant from early eighties to late nineties. The study reported here presents the advantage of simulation models to determine the yield gap against a variable annual yield potential for a agro-climatic region.