Short term prediction of atmospheric temperature using neural networks

Abstract

In this paper, a neural network based forecasting model for the maximum and the minimum temperature for the ground level is proposed. A backpropagation method of gradient-decent learning in multi-layer perceptron (MLP) type of neural network with only one hidden layer is considered. This network consists of 25 input nodes and two output nodes. The network is trained with a varying number of nodes in the hidden layer using a set of training sample and each of them is tested with a set of test sample. It accepts previous two consecutive days information (such as pressures, temperatures, relative humidities, etc.) as inputs for the estimation of the maximum and the minimum temperature as output. The network with 20 or less neurons in the hidden layer is found to be "optimum" and it produces an error within ±2° C for 80% of test cases.