Modelling the impact of climate change on rice production in India

Abstract

The CERES-Rice crop simulation model, calibrated and validated for the    varieties PR106 in NW India. IR36 in central India and Jaya in south India, is used for  nalysing the effect of climate change on rice productivity in the country. Plausible climate change scenario for the Indian subcontinent as expected by the middle of the next century taking into account the projected emissions of greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols, in a coupled atmosphere-ocean model experiment performed at Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum, Germany, is adopted for the study. The adopted scenario represented an increase in monsoon seasonal mean surface temperature of the order of about 1.5° C over the south India and 1°C over northwest and central India in the decade 2040-49 with respect to the 1980s and an increase in rainfall of the order of 2 mm per day over south India while the simulated decrease of the order about -1 mm and -1.5 mm over northwest and central India respectively. The IPCC Business-as-usual scenario projection of plant usable concentration of CO₂ about 460 PPM by the middle fo the next century are also used in the crop model simulation (CERES - Rice V3 Model).

Simulation studies carried out with the climate change scenarios over different parts of the country are analysed and interpreted.