Association between mid-latitude circulation and Indian monsoon rainfall

Abstract

The statistical relationship between the summer monsoon rainfall over India and mid-latitude general calculation at the 500 hPa level was investigated for the period 1971-1989. The index used to characterise general circulation feature is the perturbation of the zonal flow (ratio of meridional to zonal index) for the latitudinal band 35°N - 70°N over different geographical area and the hemisphere. It was found that the perturbation of the zonal flow during preceding January over the geographical sector 1 (45°W - 90°E) shows significant relationship with the subsequent Indian summer monsoon rainfall in an inverse manner. Thus, the perturbation of the mid-latitude circulation during preceding January over the geographical sector seems to be a useful predictor of the subsequent Indian monsoon rainfall. Significant simultaneous inverse relationship also exists between perturbation of mid-latitude zonal flow during July to September over Sector 2 (90°E- 160°W) and summer monsoon rainfall over northwest India.