Certain aspects on the realization of primitive equations Forecasting model in the low latitudes

Abstract

A number of numerical experiments are carried out with a barotropic primitive equations (PE) model for forecasting the tropical systems. A systematic approach has been made to solve some of the important problems arising in the process of integrating such a simple PE model in the low latitudes. Emphasis has been given to the initial data problem in the tropics. In order to study the influence of dynamical initialization and filtering techniques on the forecasting model and to study their smoothing characteristics, the spectral decomposition of kinetic energy of initial, initialized, forecast and actual wind fields, is carried out. Further, the improvement in the efficiency of the model by incorporating these techniques is demonstrated. Finally, this model is applied to forecast the movement of tropical cyclones and a monsoon depression in the Bay of Bengal and inspite of the constraints of the model, the results are quite encouraging.

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