Preliminary estimates of climate change on Indian subcontinent during the global warming of limited scale

Abstract

Basing on statistical processing of the data on Indian subcontinent climate available in the USSR the estimates have boon obtained of geographical distribution of temperature and precipitation fields with changing mean annual surface air temperature of the northern hemisphere.

Signs of changes of surface air temperature averaged over the hemisphere and these over India are usually the same. But it appears, 1hat for every season there exist regions on the subcontinent where the probability of such events is less than 0.5. In summer (Jun-Aug) the area of these regions is maximum. They Include northern, northwestern and central parts of the subcontinent.

It is shown that an increase in mean annual surface air temperature of the northern hemisphere is accompanied by an increase of precipitation totals over the entire India, specially along the western coast of the subcontinent. However, to obtain the detailed rainfall pattern associated with global thermal regime changes, a more comprehensive analysis is needed.