Large-scale droughts over India and their impact on agricultural production

Abstract

For most parts of India, the crops are rainfed, Rainwater received over the country undergoes variation from year to year. In some years, the rainwater received is very inadequate and the country suffers from drought, In this study, a large-scale drought over India is defined as the situation when the rainwater received over the country is less than the tenth percentile of the probability distribution of the annual rainwater. While computing the rainwater over the country, hilly areas have been excluded, The tenth percentile of the rainwater distribution over the country is 2760 cu. km. In accordance with the foregoing criterion, the years of large-scale drought over India during the period 1871-1978 are, 1873, 1876, 1877, 1905, 1918, 1920, 1941, 1965 and 1972, in all 10 years. Of the different meteorological parameter, rainwater is the most important from the point of view agricultural production in dry farming areas, Non-rneteorological factors, e.g., crop pests and diseases and technological improvements also affect the production significantly; these are, however, taken to be fairly constant from one year to the next. The effect of large-scale drought on agricultural production has been assessed by computing the percentage change to production from the preceding year to the year of large-scale drought, for each of the drought year for which the statistics of production are available. On the basis of the seven large-scale drought years for which statistics of production are available, it is seen that the mean values of the percentage fall in the country's total production of food grains, rice and wheat were 16, 11 and 12 per cent respectively, the highest falls observed being 30-35 per cent, mostly for 1918. The prices of food grains, rice and wheat are affected by the amounts of their production, The percentage changes is the prices in the years succeeding large-scale drought years have been computed in all the cases. The mean rise in the wholesale prices of food grains, rice and wheat was 26, 26 and 21 per cent respectively, the highest rise of 54, 69 :and 47 per cent being recorded as a result of the large-scale drought of 1918. It has, however, to be remembered that a part of the rise in prices due to the drought year of 1918 has to be attributed to the World War II. The study clearly brings out the extent of the decrease in the country's agricultural production and the extent of the all India rise in prices of food grains and food commodities, like rice and wheat as a result of the large-scale droughts.