Present operational long range forecasting system for southwest monsoon rainfall over India and its performance during 2010

Authors

  • D.S. PAI India Meteorological Department, Pune, India
  • O.P. SREEJITH India Meteorological Department, Pune, India
  • S.G. NARGUND India Meteorological Department, Pune, India
  • MADHURI MUSALE India Meteorological Department, Pune, India
  • AJIT TYAGI India Meteorological Department, New Delhi, India

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.54302/mausam.v62i2.283

Keywords:

Operational long range forecasting, Indian southwest monsoon rainfall, India Meteorological Department, rainfall-crop production relationship, Statistical ensemble forecasting system etc.

Abstract

At present, India Meteorological Department (IMD) issues various monthly and seasonal operational forecasts for the south-west monsoon season using models based on latest statistical techniques with useful skill. Operational models are reviewed regularly and improved through in house research activities. For the forecasting of the south-west monsoon season (June – September) rainfall over the country as a whole, a newly introduced statistical ensemble forecasting system is used. In addition, models have been developed for the forecast of the monsoon season rainfall over four geographical regions (NW India, NE India, Central India and South Peninsula) of the country and forecast for the rainfall over the second half of the monsoon season over the country as a whole. Models have also been developed for issuing operational forecast for the monthly rainfall for the months of July, August & September over the country as a whole. Operational forecasts issued by IMD for 2010 south-west monsoon rainfall have been discussed and verified. In addition, the experimental forecasts for the season rainfall over the country as a whole based on both
statistical and dynamical models received from various climate research institutes within the country other than IMD are
also discussed.


The operational monthly and seasonal long range forecasts issued for the 2010 southwest monsoon season for the country as a whole were accurate. However, forecasts for the season rainfall over the 4 geographical regions (Northwest India, Central India, Northeast India and south Peninsular India) were not accurate as the forecast for South Peninsular India overestimated the actual rainfall and that for northeast India underestimated the actual rainfall. The experimental forecasts for the season rainfall over the country as whole from various climate research institutes within the country showed large variance (91 % - 112% of LPA).

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Published

01-04-2011

How to Cite

[1]
D. . PAI, O. . SREEJITH, S. . NARGUND, M. . MUSALE, and A. TYAGI, “Present operational long range forecasting system for southwest monsoon rainfall over India and its performance during 2010”, MAUSAM, vol. 62, no. 2, pp. 179–196, Apr. 2011.

Issue

Vol. 62 No. 2 (2011): MAUSAM

Section

Research Papers

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