Estimated earthquake Probabilities in the northeast India and Andaman-Nicobar islands

Abstract

Gumbel's extreme values theory has been applied to estimate the probability of occurrence and return periods of the largest earthquakes in the northeast India and Andaman-Nicobar Islands The statistical model of Epstein and Lomnitz (1966) is discussed with reference to the Gumbel's extreme value theory. The mean lines of expected extremes based on 46 years data of yearly extreme values of earthquakes in the three regions are plotted separately and the mean return periods of the largest possible earthquakes with their probability of recurrence are estimated. The most probable largest earthquakes in the Richter scale that may occur in an year and in an interval of 50 years are also estimated and reported.