Minimum temperature forecasting by stochastic techniques : An evidence of the heat island effect

Authors

  • E. HERNANDEZ
  • R. GARCIA
  • M. T. TESO

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.54302/mausam.v42i2.3072

Keywords:

ARMAX, heat island effect, persistence, partial anto-correlation, stochastic models, white noise

Abstract

This paper deals mainly with the forecasting of minimum temperatures (Tm) from an stochastic viewpoint. Some appropriate theoretical considerations lead to a choice of those variables significant connected to Tm. Modelling has been carried out for two nearby observatories, one in the centre of Madrid, the other one in the border (Barajas airport). The obtained models allow to show that the significant variables are the same for both locations, but performance in the peripheral area is of a rather inferior quality. It is shown, taking into account the characteristics of both places, that the difference between them can be allotted to the heat-island effect in the centre of Madrid.

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Published

01-04-1991

How to Cite

[1]
E. . HERNANDEZ, R. . GARCIA, and M. T. . TESO, “Minimum temperature forecasting by stochastic techniques : An evidence of the heat island effect”, MAUSAM, vol. 42, no. 2, pp. 161–166, Apr. 1991.

Issue

Vol. 42 No. 2 (1991): Mausam

Section

Shorter Contribution

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