Prediction of dust storm events over northern parts of India using NCUM

Abstract

Dust storms are common over north-west parts of India during the pre-monsoon season. The main objective of this study is to assess the movement of dust over Indian region during a dust event using the dust aerosol optical depth (AOD) forecast from an operational numerical weather prediction model. Observed values of visibility, wind speed are used to identify the dust events over a point location. In addition, satellite observations for the days prior to, during and after dust events are utilized to ascertain the dust event. The performance of operational NCMRWF Unified Model (NCUM) is analyzed in predicting the values of dust AOD during dust events over north west parts of India. Predicted values of dust AOD are compared with observations available from satellite and ground based network of Aerosol Observation Network (Aeronet).

                The dust event of 25^th May, 2016 observed at Jaipur and Lucknow is well captured by NCUM up to Day-3 forecast. The comparison of predicted dust AOD at point locations Jaipur and Kanpur reveals that NCUM is capable in predicting the high values of AODs during dust event.