Forecasting the yield of principal crops in India on the basis of weather -Paddy / Rice

Abstract

By the method of regression analysis, forecast; formulae have been evolved for forecasting yield of autumn paddy/rice in Mysore State using meteorological factors. The study reveals that there is increase in average yield per acre due to technology from early fifties. In Coastal Mysore, restricted rainy days during July to 15 September and frequency of occasions of drought and floods during August and September are the principal weather factors having significant effect on yield. The corresponding factor for Interior Mysore North is occasions of droughts during July to September. In the Interior Mysore South, June and September rainfall have significant effect on  yield. By testing the formulae for the yields for 1965 to 1968, it is found that they agree well with the reported yields. All correlation coefficients obtained are significant at 0.1 per cent level.