Prediction of sea state under tropical cyclones in the UK Met Office operational global wave model

Abstract

The United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO) routinely runs a global operational numerical weather prediction model. Surface winds from this model are used by a spectral wave model to forecast sea state. A brief description is given of the formulation of the wave model, and two cases of Tropical Cyclones in the Bay of Bengal are examined using the archived data generated in real time by the operational wave model. These are Tropical Cyclone 3B, 14-15 June 1996 and Tropical Cyclone 07B, 4-6 November 1996.

At a resolution of 1.25° in longitude by 0.833° in latitude the numerical weather prediction model does not represent the dynamics of a tropical cyclone and the surface wind speeds are underestimated. Consequently, the extreme sea state generated by a Tropical Cyclone is not modelled. However, the wave model was able to generate a long period swell of over 3m height, which propagated away from the area of generation.

Finally, work in progress to blend the operational numerical model surface winds with synthetically generated tropical cyclone surf winds, for use in the operational wave model, is outlined.