Impact assessment of climate change on groundnut yield of middle Gujarat region

Abstract

The impact of projected climate change on groundnut (cv. Robut 33-1 and GG-2) yield have been studied for Anand station of middle Gujarat Agro-climatic region using PRECIS output of A₂ scenario and base line data. Yield simulation study was performed by PNUTGRO (DSSAT v4.5) model. The field experiment data on groundnut cv. Robut 33-1 and GG-2 during the years 2008 to 2011 have been used to calibrate and validate the model. The weather condition as projected by A₂ scenario (2070-2100) showed that there will be 13.7% higher rainfall as compared to base line (1961-90).  The mean maximum and minimum temperature will be higher to the tune of 3.6 and 5.1 °C as compared to their base temperature of 19.1 and 29.8 °C respectively. Nearly 21 and 31% pod yield reduction was noted in Robut 33-1 and GG-2 as compared to their base yield during projected period. Highest yield reduction was recorded in late sowing (15^th July) and cv. GG-2 and lowest yield reduction was noted in timely sowing (D₁) and cv. Robut 33-1. Under projected period. 7.0 to 16.0% yield benefited by adaptation strategies,  viz,  fifteen days earlier shifting of sowing with one pre sowing  irrigation and  Application of organic manure instead of chemical fertilizer.