District level value-added dynamical-synoptic forecast system for rainfall

Authors

  • B. LAL India Meteorological Department, New Delhi – 110 003, India
  • O. P. SINGH India Meteorological Department, New Delhi – 110 003, India
  • ONKARI PRASAD India Meteorological Department, New Delhi – 110 003, India
  • S. K. ROY BHOWMIK India Meteorological Department, New Delhi – 110 003, India
  • S. R. KALSI India Meteorological Department, New Delhi – 110 003, India
  • S. K. SUBRAMANIAN India Meteorological Department, New Delhi – 110 003, India

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.54302/mausam.v57i2.468

Keywords:

Super ensemble, Prediction, Value-added dynamical-synoptic forecast, Constituent model, Validation, Skill improvement

Abstract

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The paper presents the methodology and trial results of the district level value-added dynamical-synoptic forecast for rainfall. The technique was tried for forecasting districtwise rainfall during Pre-monsoon, Southwest Monsoon and Post monsoon seasons of 2005. The constituent dynamical models were T-80, MM5, ETA of the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) and the MM5 model operational at India Meteorological Department, New Delhi. The dynamical predictions were prepared using the rainfall predictions of the constituent models by assigning different weights. The dynamical predictions were converted into value-added synoptic-weather forecasts by taking into account other inputs like circulation features, vertical velocity, satellite information, synoptic charts and climatology etc. The experience during 2005 has shown that the value-added dynamical-synoptic system can produce 24, 48, 72 hours district level rainfall forecast of greater skill than the skills of the constituent models.

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Published

03-04-2006

How to Cite

[1]
B. . LAL, O. P. . SINGH, O. . PRASAD, S. K. R. . BHOWMIK, S. R. . KALSI, and S. K. . SUBRAMANIAN, “District level value-added dynamical-synoptic forecast system for rainfall”, MAUSAM, vol. 57, no. 2, pp. 209–220, Apr. 2006.

Issue

Section

Research Papers