Sequence of months with rain above and below average in Rayalaseema considered in relation to the theory of probability
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.54302/mausam.v5i3.4870Keywords:
Theory of Probability, Rayalseema.Abstract
Monthly rainfall over a period of 60 years (1891-1950) in Rayalaseema has been analysed. The averages of the 12 months were determined and the sequences of months with rain above and below average (designated as A and B) respectively studied. It is found that an empirical relationship of the form log F=nR+S (where R and S are constants) exists between n the length of the run or sequence and F the cumulative frequency of runs of length n and more.
After performing the contingency test for the independence of the nature of consecutive months an approach based on the theory of probability is made and a justification for the observed logarithmic relation obtained.
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