Effect of projected climate scenarios on the yields of potato crop and agronomic adaptation options as evaluated by crop growth model

Abstract

Potato is the most important non-cereal crop in the world and the most prominent winter season crop in India. Growth and yield of potato crop is very much sensitive to higher temperatures and the moisture stress. Hence, the anticipated increase of temperature due to global warming and climatic variability will have anadverse impact on potato production. Keeping this in view, a research work was carried out with the objectives to assess the impact of climate change on potato production and evaluating agronomic adaptation options through a crop growth simulation model (CGSM). Field experiments were carried out to prepare the minimum dataset for calibration and validation of one CGSM, namely InfoCrop. After validation, the model was used to predict the future tuber yield of ten selected stations situated under different agroclimatic regions of the State. In the future scenario 2050, the simulated yield for mid November planted crop likely to be about 11% less than the present level of mean yield. If the crop is planted in December, the percentage of yield reduction may be around 25%.The projected yield reduction, for the stations of higher latitude, is found to be negligible. Three possible agronomic adaptation options, viz., adjustment of date of planting, increase of seed rate and varying sprout length of seed tubers, have been tried as adaptation strategies to combat the adverse effects of climate change. It is concluded that the mid-November planting and longer sprout length will be the best adaptation option. However, the enhanced seed rate is not a viable adaptation option.