Quantitative precipitation forecast for the Godavari basin using the Synoptic analogue method

Abstract

In the present study, we have constructed a frequency of occurrence of rainfall over each sub-catchment of the Godavari river catchment using the synoptic analogue method for the years 2012-2019. Using the Frequency of the Areal average precipitations the model is verified for the AAP of the synoptic situations for the years 2020. The model has observed the  62% percentage of correct for the monsoon season 2020 and it gives the 90% correct to 50-100 and >100 AAP events. Using the frequency of the AAP events w have constructed the percentage of probability of the AAP of the synoptic events which occur over the Sub-basin. This model is generally accurate for the generation of QPF before the 24hr provided the synoptic conditions over the Region which will be very helpful to facilitate the 48hrs forecast to the flood forecasters and end-users like the central Water commission and Disaster management authorities.