Sthan vishesh ke mausam ka purvanuman

Abstract

In North India, due to the geomorphology, high altitude and different orientations of Western Himalayan mountain ranges, prediction of weather parameters becomes a complex problem. During winter, a large amount of precipitation is received in this region due to Western Disturbances (WDs). This area is also avalanche prone. The information of the site specific weather plays an important role in the prediction of avalanche. In the present study, we have used the Model Output Statistics (MOS) technique to develop a Statistical – Dynamical Model (SDM) to better predict three weather parameters (ambient temperature, wind speed and precipitation) of 11 SASE surface observatories situated in the Western Himalayan mountainous region in North India. We have used 26 parameters from MM5 model output and observed surface weather data from 11 surface observatories for the winter months of three consecutive years from 2004 to 2006 to develop this model. The performances of the model have been assessed using the independent data set from the winter months for the year 2007. This assessment shows that model output statistics (MOS) technique improves the forecast over specific station locations.