Current status and progress in the seasonal prediction of the Asian summer monsoon

Abstract

The Asian summer monsoon (ASM) has a considerable impact on human lives in the most populated region in the world. Thus, its seasonal prediction is a high-profile application in Earth Science. However, the prediction skill of the regional ASM variability has long been limited due to a formidable difficulty in accurately simulating the complex interactions of the atmosphere-ocean variability and its remote influence on regional climate in numerical models. This study updates the current status and assesses progress in the ASM seasonal prediction performance. This study evaluated the seasonal prediction skill of two generations of models in hindcast data archived by the WCRP Climate-system Historical Forecast Project (CHFP) and Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). A special focus was put on the representation of the predominant teleconnections associated with the ENSO and Indian Ocean variability. It was found that the latest seasonal prediction systems (C3S) generally outperform previous-generation systems (CHFP) in terms of the reproducibility of the observed precipitation climatology and the prediction skill of the interannual variability of seasonal precipitation over the ASM region. Furthermore, the results suggested that the improvement of the prediction skill of the ASM likely stems from the improved representation of the monsoon climatology and teleconnections in the models. These analyses highlight the steady progress of the atmosphere-ocean coupled modelling and promise future improvements in the seasonal ASM prediction.