Impact outlook of Asian Monsoon for Disaster Resilience

Abstract

The Asian summer monsoon impacts the human lives and agrarian economies throughout Asia. These impacts are driven by monsoon anomalies which are manifested interms of the seasonal precipitation, surface temperatures, and the occurrences of floods,droughts, and tropical cyclones. A strong monsoon results in various positive outcomes like increased agricultural produce, economic growth,reduced commodityprices and national inflationary levels as well as increased ground water and restored reservoirs.While predicting the Asian summer monsoon has been prioritized by decision-makers across sectors in Asia, impact forecasting must gain greater significance as itis particularly important to tackle disaster risks. The paradigm shifts from ‘what monsoon will be to what monsoon will do’provides valuable insightsto better prepare Asian countries for managingimpending extreme events. The paper brings out how impact outlook for Asian monsoon can be effectively utilized.It shows howseasonal forecasts overlaid with risk and hazards maps andindicators on exposure and vulnerability can enhance understanding ofpotential risk scenariosfor various sectors, including agriculture, energy, health, water, and disaster management. Noting the limitations of accuracy and information available from seasonal forecasts, the information provided from impact outlook should be understood as preliminary assessments. The paper makes a case for seamless integration of seasonal, sub-seasonal, medium, and short terms forecasts withthe data on potential impact for close monitoring and taking targeted policy actions.