Verification of operational rainfall forecast over eastern India during southwest monsoon season

Abstract

The Indian summer monsoon rainfall forecast and its verification has a direct impact on various sectors of public interest besides economy of the country. The present study highlights the verification of distribution forecast of synoptic method issued daily for six met subdivisions, comprising of five states of eastern India namely West Bengal, Sikkim, Bihar, Jharkhand and Odisha. Three years monsoon season rainfall data from 2011 through 2013 are used for the study area. The distribution-oriented verification is done for different rainfall classes like dry, isolated, scattered, fairly widespread and widespread to understand the usefulness of the synoptic method. Statistics are presented for both combined classes of Percentage Correct (PC) and Heidke Skill Score (HSS) of the met subdivision wise forecast and PC, POD and CSI for individual classes. It has been observed that among the met subdivision the efficiency of the method is highest in Sub Himalayan West Bengal (SHWB) & Sikkim followed by Gangetic West Bengal (GWB), Odisha, Jharkhand and Bihar.