A statistical perspective on Assam’s temperature pattern from 1985-2022

Abstract

This paper focusses on the variation of a significant parameter of climate, Temperature. To study the variation of this parameter, various zones of Assam has been consideredsince it is expected to be highlyprone to consequences to climate change because of its sensitive geo-ecological set-up and strategic location. This paper gives not only the idea about how temperature is changing but also explains aberration from one station to other stations in four selected zones of Assam by calculating Growth rate from 1985-2022 season wise. To extract specific information about the temperature of Assam during the period 1985-2022, monthly mean maximum temperature and monthly mean minimum temperature is considered. Growth rate of temperature indicates that the percentage rate of change in maximum temperature is least in Dhubri station and highest in Dibrugarh station for all season. But in case of minimum temperature, variation rate is least in Dibrugarh station for all season except post-monsoon season and shows highest in Dhubri station for all seasons. Along these, this paper tries to elaborate the statistical frame of temperature during the period 1985-2022. Besides these, the statistical time series models are considered for projection; the extreme value analysis is done to assure the significance of extreme events.