Impact of Arabian Sea warming on trough dynamics and flooding intensification over the Dubai flood 2024

Abstract

Understanding climate extremes is vital for enhancing forecasting capabilities and minimizing the risk to lives and property. On 16 April 2024, the arid desert city Dubai in the United Arab Emirates witnessed an unprecedented extreme rainfall of ~250 mm of precipitation in 24hrs. The sudden downpour triggered extensive flooding throughout the city, impacting infrastructure, transportation, water systems, and socio-economic activities. Among the disruptions, Dubai International Airport, one of the world’s busiest, experienced significant delays and flight operations persisted around the three-day period due to the heavy rainfall. This study investigates the atmospheric conditions responsible for this event, focusing on both large-scale and synoptic-scale drivers, as well as the influence of regional oceanic conditions, particularly the warming of the Arabian Sea. Findings reveal that the convective event was driven by strong low-level convergence and anomalous moisture transport from the Arabian Sea, Red Sea, and Persian Gulf. Warmer sea surface temperatures (>1.2 C above normal) in the Arabian Sea have contributed to increasing lower-to-middle atmospheric moisture. Prolonged vertical wind shear was sustained by a severe cyclonic circulation anomaly in the lower troposphere and a notable mid to upper level troughs also created by the upper level anticyclonic and cyclonic patterns from the geopotential height at 200 hPa. These features, combined with enhanced upper-level subtropical jet streams, provided both dynamic and thermodynamic support for sustained convective development. The vertical alignment of these atmospheric processes throughout the troposphere sets the stage for deep cloud formation and intense rainfall. Overall, this study highlights the combined influence of ocean-atmosphere interactions, particularly Arabian Sea warming, in driving extreme weather events over the Arabian Peninsula.