Performance evaluation of WRF model in simulating a thundershower event of March 2025 in Bhubaneswar, Odisha, India

Abstract

This study evaluates the performance of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in simulating a thundershower event that occurred in Bhubaneswar, Odisha valid 18 UTC on 22 March to 00 UTC on 23 March 2025. Simulation was conducted using WRF single moment six-class (WSM6) microphysics, Yonsei University Planetary boundary layer parameterizations to study the storm structure, precipitation, and dynamics. Model simulated outputs are compared with observations including Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) rainfall data. Results indicate that the model effectively captures the spatial distribution and temporal evolution of the thundershower, although with certain biases in rainfall intensity and timing. The analysis of horizontal divergence and relative vorticity features underscore the necessity for improved microphysical representations in numerical weather prediction models to enhance forecasting accuracy for convective events associated with thundershowers/thunderstorms in tropical and subtropical regions.