Projected changes in temperature and rainfall during 21st century simulated by CSIRO-Mk-3-6-0 model under RCP based scenarios in Punjab

Abstract

A study was conducted to assess the projected changes in climatic parameters during 21^st century in Punjab state. The CSIRO-Mk 3-6-0 model simulated data was downscaled from the website http://gismap.ciat.cgiar.org/MarkSimGCM/ for seven locations under four RCP scenarios. The two future periods,               i.e., mid-century (MC: 2020-2049) and end-century (EC: 2066-2095) were assessed on annual and seasonal (kharif and rabi) basis. During mid-century the annual, kharif and rabi seasons maximum temperature is projected to increase from baseline period between 0 to 1.5 °C, 0.3 to 1.5 °C and 0 to 1.6 °C, respectively; minimum temperature to increase from baseline period between 1.1 to 3.1 °C, 0.1 to 4.8 °C and 0.3 to 1.8 °C, respectively but the rainfall to decrease from baseline period between 33 to 554 mm, 20 to 443 mm and 20 to 110 mm, respectively. During the end-century the annual, kharif and rabi seasons maximum temperature is projected to increase from baseline period between 0.8 to 4.4°C, 0.8 to 4.3 °C and 0.6 to 4.9 °C, respectively; minimum temperature to increase from baseline period between 0.4 to   6.6 °C, 0.5 to 6.3 °C and 0.0 to 5.5 °C, respectively but the rainfall to decrease from baseline period between 3 to  610 mm, 14 to 506 mm and 17 to 107 mm, respectively. Rainfall was projected to increase at Abohar (11-41 mm) while it may decline at Amritsar (49-128 mm), Ballowal Saunkhri (501-554 mm), Ludhiana (131-152 mm), Patiala (148-187), Bathinda (49-82 mm) and Faridkot (33-67 mm).