Impact assessment of climate change and adaptation measures through different RCPs scenarios using CERES-Wheat model for wheat yield under different agroclimatic zones of Punjab, India

Abstract

The Climate change impact under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5) was studied in Punjab state conditions. The study area includes three locations for which the bias corrected temperature and rainfall meteorological data for Ensemble model was collected and used as input in calibrated and validated DSSAT CERES-Wheat model. The model run for the assessment of yield for two wheat cultivars (HD 2967 and PBW 725) using deviation from the baseline period (2010-2021) for a 70 years (2025-2095) time period in near (2025-2055) and far (2066-2095) future scenarios. The current dates of sowing observed a yield decline at different agroclimatic zones for near and far future under four scenarios as agroclimatic zone II Ballowal Saunkhri (4-37%and 0.6- 35%) agroclimatic zone III Amritsar (0.4-32% and 0.3 to 38%) and Ludhiana 0.65-32% and 0.32-38%). The major decline in yield was indicated under high emission scenario i.e. RCP 8.5 during the far future whereas RCP 2.6 indicated low decline in wheat yield during both near and far future. The declination in yield at different locations indicated a requirement of optimized sowing window under different future scenarios. The results for optimized sowing window showed that adjusting in the sowing dates of all the three locations at last week of November for both the wheat cultivars to get maximum yield.