Analysis of rainfall and temperatures for climatic trend in Kullu valley

Abstract

Kullu valley is famous for tourism and agricultural activities but recently it has assumed importance for studies on climatic variability. There is an increasing trend in minimum and maximum temperatures but no trend in annual rainfall. The slope of regression line for annual rainfall was negative at Bajaura and positive at Katrain but both were non significant. The coefficient of variation for annual rainfall (22 %) and for monsoon rainfall (33 %) was showing the consistence of annual and southwest monsoon rainfall but, a shifting of monsoon from its wettest months was observed. The rainfall was most variable during post monsoon season at Bajaura and in winter at Katrain. The decreasing rate in rainfall was higher during the recent period than the decadal period. Monthly, seasonal and annual average minimum temperature was showing decreasing trend at Bajaura and an increasing trend at Katrain, but, maximum temperature is increasing at both the stations. The minimum temperature was most variable during the winter season whereas the maximum temperature was during summer. Higher the altitude higher the variability in minimum temperature but lower the altitude higher the variability in maximum temperature. Both maximum and minimum temperatures were showing a higher rate of increasing during the recent period.