Importance of meridional winds in. forecasting sub-regional summer monsoon rainfall

Abstract

ABSTRACT. Based on 35 years' (1959-1993) data, the zonal and meridional wind components of selected Indian RS/RW statiomupto 100 hPa level were analysed for the pre-monsoon months of April and May in order to associate them with sub-regional monsoon rainfall of northeast India. Composite values of monsoon rainfall and meridional components for May for excess and deficient yean have revealed that anomaly of meridional components for the middle and upper troposphere is northerly/southerly preceding excees/deficient monsoon year. The meridional winds at most of the levels of Delhi and some of the levels of Jodhpur Nagpur, Bombay and Madras for the month of May showed significant correlations (significant at 0.1% to 5% level of significance) with sub-divisional monsoon rainfall in northeast India. The temporal behaviour of correlation coefficients for Punjab and Haryana for 16 and 20-year sliding windows has exhibited rasonable temporal stability except for first few years. Multiple rearession equations for 30 and 35 year period for Haryana, Punjab and contiguous northweat India were also developed. The regression model for Punjab sub-division has shown quite good  results for the independent period.