MM5 simulation of the 1999 Orissa Super Cyclone : Impact of bogus vortex on track and intensity prediction

Abstract

lkj & bl v/;;u esa 29 vDrwcj] 1999 dks mM+hlk ds rV ij vk, egkpØokr ds izfr:i.k ds fy, ,u- lh- ,- vkj@ih- ,l- ;w-  ,e- ,e- 5 eslksLdsy fun’kZ ¼xzsy bR;kfn 1995½ dk mi;ksx fd;k x;k gsA bl fun’kZ esa pØokr dh izkjafHkd voLFkk vkSj mldh ifjlhekvksa dh voLFkkvksa ds :i  esa jk"Vªh; e/;&vof/k ekSle iwokZuqeku dsUnz Vh- 80 ds izpkyukRed fo’ys"k.kksa dk iz;ksx fd;k x;k gS vkSj rwQku dh vof/k esa 3 fnu rd dk iwokZuqeku rS;kj djus ds fy, bl fun’kZ dks 72 ?kaVs dh vof/k ds fy, lekdfyr fd;k x;k gSA bl v/;;u dk mn~ns’; pØokr ds ekxZ ij dfYir Hkzfey ds izHkko dk ewY;kadu djuk vkSj pØokr dh rhozrk dk iwokZuqeku yxkuk gSA

In this study NCAR/PSU MM5 mesoscale model (Grell et al. 1995) is used to simulate the super cyclone that struck the Orissa coast on 29^th October 1999. The model makes use of the operational NCMRWF T 80 analysis as initial and boundary conditions and is integrated up to 72 hr for producing 3-day forecast of the storm. The aim of this study is to assess the impact of bogus vortex on track and intensity prediction.